What the Escalating Conflict Means for Organisations with People in the Region

In the space of 72 hours, the Middle East has been transformed. US and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes on Iran on 28th February 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes across the Gulf, hitting airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait, striking hotels and damaging RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus. Hezbollah has re-entered the conflict from Lebanon. The region is in active, multi-front conflict.

For the millions of overseas workers and residents currently in the Gulf, and the thousands of organisations with staff, contractors and operations across the region, this is a duty of care emergency.

Key developments as of 3rd March 2026

• US-Israeli strikes launched 28th Feb under Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury
• Supreme Leader Khamenei confirmed killed 1st March
• Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia
• Dubai International, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait airports struck or severely disrupted
• Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel from Lebanon; Israel struck Beirut
• FCDO advising shelter in place across Gulf states - millions of foreign nationals affected, including an estimated 300,000 British citizens
• Airspace closed across most of the region, with hundreds of thousands stranded
• Iran has threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could have significant implications for global oil and gas availability and is likely to trigger soaring prices worldwide

Current FCDO Guidance

The UK Foreign Office is updating its travel advice multiple times daily. As of 3rd March 2026:

• Shelter in place: remain indoors, avoid all travel: UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar
• Advise against all travel: Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Yemen, Oman
• Register your presence via the FCDO if you are a UK national in the region
• Monitor FCDO travel advice closely as guidance is changing rapidly

British nationals in the region who need consular assistance should contact the FCDO 24/7 helpline. The UK government is drawing up evacuation plans, though commercial aviation remains severely disrupted.

What Does This Mean for Your Duty of Care Obligations?

Employers have a clear legal and moral obligation to protect the safety of their employees, wherever in the world they are working. This obligation only intensifies during a fast-moving crisis.

Organisations that had robust travel risk and crisis response frameworks in place before 28 February are managing this situation. Those that did not are scrambling and trying to locate people, establish communication and understand their options in real time.

Four Things Organisations Must Do Right Now

1. Know Where Your People Are

Establish the location and status of every employee, contractor and dependent currently in affected countries. If you cannot do this immediately, that gap in your framework needs to be addressed now and for the future.

2. Establish and Maintain Communication

Confirm two-way contact with all personnel in the region. Primary communication channels may be disrupted, so activate backup protocols and out-of-band contact methods. Do not rely on a single channel.

3. Assess Evacuation Options

Commercial aviation is severely disrupted across the region. Overland routes, private charter and FCDO repatriation guidance should all be assessed now. Do not wait for a formal evacuation order to begin planning.

4. Review Your Insurance and Contingency Coverage Position

Standard travel insurance policies frequently exclude active conflict zones. Confirm the coverage status for all personnel in the region immediately. Discovering you are uninsured at the point of making a claim is a situation that can be avoided.

Outlook

The killing of Khamenei removes a stabilising figure within Iran’s complex factional regime structure. In the short term, his death is more likely to intensify hardline elements within the IRGC and security apparatus than to trigger any move towards de-escalation. Multiple further rounds of reciprocal strikes should be anticipated, targeting the US and its Allies in the region, and across military bases, international hotels and civilian infrastructure.

Upon death, a three-member leadership council (President, Judiciary Chief, and a Guardian Council cleric) temporarily assumes duties until the Assembly of Experts selects a new leader. This system is built on Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), whereby the Supreme Leader must be a senior Islamic cleric.

Hezbollah's re-entry into the conflict represents a significant escalation. The risk of further proxy activation increases if Iranian regime survival appears threatened. Organisations should plan on the basis that current disruption is sustained, not temporary.

The cyber threat dimension should not be overlooked. Iranian-aligned threat actors have significantly increased digital reconnaissance activity since the strikes began. Organisations with operations or data infrastructure in the region face an elevated and parallel risk.

How Peregrine Risk Management Can Help

Peregrine provides specialist security and risk management support to organisations operating in complex and high-risk environments. Our current Middle East support includes:

• Immediate threat intelligence and situation monitoring
• Duty of care reviews and emergency response planning
• Evacuation, shelter-in-place and relocation strategies available across the region, including proven route selection, transportation (high capacity lifts available) and border crossing protocols
• Travel security briefings for personnel in or deploying to the region
• Crisis management advisory for security and HR teams

If your organisation has people in the region and needs immediate support, our team is available now:

Call: +44 (0) 1568 607 000           Email: enquiries@peregrine-rm.com            www.peregrine-rm.com/contact

This briefing reflects the situation as of 3rd March 2026. Peregrine Risk Management recommends monitoring FCDO guidance and specialist threat intelligence for the latest developments.